Posted by AuntieMel on March 8, 2005, at 12:44:34
In reply to Re: U.S. Does not follow the rules of NAFTA (long) » AuntieMel, posted by gromit on March 5, 2005, at 10:06:19
> Ahhh, death by brain numbing years spent optimizing meaningless SQL. I'm glad to hear you are comfortable and won't have to worry too much about money. Dealing with M.I. is bad enough without adding financial troubles. I'm speaking for myself since I don't know you, for all I know you are only here for the sparkling conversation ;^)
Don't get me wrong. I'm not exactly rolling in cash.But in 1986 hubby and I both lost jobs, within two weeks of each other. A huge percentage of the rest of the town was in the same boat. No way we could sell the house for what was even owed as around 20-30% of the neighborhood was in forclosure and houses like ours were selling for 1/3 to 1/2 of what we owed.
However, due to his money management skills, we had no other debt and a little (precious little) in the bank. Luckily he got a consultant job paying a percentage of the jobs he worked on and I was able to go back to college full time.
And after a semester of college the place that had just dumped me hired me back contract at 50% more than I was making. Great part time job for a student.
Can you imagine if this was any other industry? The howling and whining there would be? Demand for government help and protections?
But, nah, the best we got was a 6 month extension on our miserly unemployment.
And, being the proud folk that we Texans are, we didn't really expect more. We slogged on, most leaving the industry completely, but all of us making it in one way or another.
Fourteen years later we sold the house for about what we paid for it, not counting the thousands in improvements.
And nobody in the biz that lived through that time has forgotten. We're like people who grew up in the depression. Save a lot, spend what you have to.
There was a bumper sticker around here for a long time. "Please God, give us one more boom. We promise not to screw it up this time"
> It's sad to see good people lose their jobs. Was this caused by cutting production or is it more automation in the process? Maybe a combination of the two? I think when it becomes more obvious that these are high paying jobs with a good future and a shortage of qualified replacements there will be more students pursuing them. Fossil fuels are a dead end though, it's just a matter of when.
Did you get the magnitude when I said hundreds of thousands??? I heard a number around a half million US jobs - or Texas jobs, I don't remember.
Oil gets in your blood. Kids see parents enthused about the industry and want to follow the same path. That doesn't happen anymore. Parents tell the kids to do anything BUT the oil biz.
Because there is no stability in it. None. Nada. Zip. Part of my decline into MI was that between 2001 and 2003 my department had layoff after layoff. I tried highlighting them on the phone list by layoff date, but I couldn't find enough colors. 40% of the people I worked with are no longer here. Good people, too, not slackards. The UK office had the same thing. My best friend was 'made redundant.'
The business is cyclical and people understand that. But the wild swings affect what's left of us us a whole lot more than they do you.
No parent wants to see his kids go through a frightening time like that, or even be tied to a region. And for sure no parent wants to support the kids when they are out of work.
The universities can't put them out easily anymore. Not enough students sign up for so many years = no professors left.
>
> Well here in CA and probably at least as much in Florida, we get a lot of revenue from tourists who come to relax and enjoy the warm weather and the beaches. I doubt they want to look out at the ocean sunset thru oil rigs, I know I don't. It's bad enough every time it rains we have to close the beaches because of raw sewage in the water.
>I don't remember us ever having to close a beach.
> > Kind of 'we'll have our cake and Texas can eat it.'
>
> That's one way to look at it. Another is we give out of state companies rights to come and setup rigs offshore, there is no danger of polluting *their* coastline, they just rake in the profits.
>You are assuming that the rigs would polute the shoreline. I haven't heard of any of that here.
And for out of state companies - what about Unocal and Chevron? Well, at least before Chevron was swallowed up by Exxon.
I can guaran-dang-tee you that if things were opened up on other coasts they wouldn't quit looking here.
And I can also tell you that one of the reasons we have very low taxes because the state gets royalties off every barrel pumped. You haven't heard of a tax revolt here yet, right? I haven't heard that this state wants to privatize their retirements (ala social security) because the market went bad and they're underfunded.
> It all sounds good but I don't see this administration providing funding for any of it. They don't even pretend to care about the environment anymore. Maybe in another 4 years.
>Nor did the last one, nor did the one before that. This country doesn't have a decent energy policy and never has.
The good (ex) governor of Texas - Ann Richards - proposed that if the country put a floor on the price of oil - say 20 to 25 USD there would be a lot more domestic exploration and we wouldn't be at the mercy of other countries.
But that was in the eighties when everyone was celebrating cheap gas and not looking to the future.
So what happened? Wells that could make a profit at 20 were cemented in, and exploration is limited to wells that can be profitable at 10 to 15.
>
> We need to start these programs again ASAP, the money spent now will payoff down the road.
>Yes we do, but it would be way down the road. If something had been done 15 years ago there would be plenty of domestic fuel and it wouldn't be such a hurry now, either.
>
> I have a really hard time believing in supply and demand when it comes to oil, as soon as the price drops production seems to follow, any shortage is artificial but that's just my impression. And the dollar is not *that* volatile to explain the prices I was paying last summer.
>Well, a lot of things explain the prices you paid last summer.
One of which is the 'special' formula Cal demands in the summer. It's not a matter of just turning a knob, refineries have to be reworked to make special formulas.
And Cal isn't real consistent either, which doesn't help. One time your state will demand a certain ingredient and then they'll decide that ingredient is carcinogenic and demand it taken out.
Remember that when you see 'price of oil' in the news they aren't talking about what people actually pay. The price in the news is oil *futures* much like the old pork bellies. Most oil is actually sold by long term contracts.
Natural gas is too, and if Cal hadn't insisted on buying it on the spot market they wouldn't have been vulnerable to the Enrons of the world.
Spot market looked good when the price was low. But - the business is cyclical and the price won't stay low.
But back to the price and supply/demand. If there are more people driving out there after 911 and if more of those people drive SUVs then there is a much, much larger demand for that specially formulated summer gasoline.
Just out of curiosity - are station owners in CAL required to post on the pump how much of a gallon is state/federal tax? If so, I'm curious how much it is.
Reason - I was out there visiting when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The price of gas went up about 10 cents. Front page of the LA Times had an article with a huge headline, moaning about how oil companies play on fears and jack up prices even though flow hasn't been interupted.
Last paragraph on the inside page {like anyone gets that far, right?} it said something like 'of course 5 cents if from the tax increase that just took effect.'
> IMO there is a difference between what is technically legal and what is right or wrong. When it comes to business otherwise good people seem to think anything goes, stab your friend in the back for a promotion, screw people living on fixed incomes, hey nothing personal it's just business.
And from our perspective there is a difference between laying off steel workers and laying off oilfield workers. But, hey, it's not personal.
>
> I enjoy talking with you, thank's for replying and enduring my scattered writing style.
>And thank you - if you got this far..
poster:AuntieMel
thread:465800
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/poli/20050122/msgs/468241.html