Posted by AuntieMel on February 15, 2005, at 15:03:12
In reply to In one weeks time..., posted by 64bowtie on February 14, 2005, at 2:16:06
and a rant.
First the factual errors?
No way is 70% of our oil from domestic production. Even my wildest (damp) dream doesn't have the business picking up. We were not even at 70% local in the late 70s/ early 80s *before* we cut back local production and hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost.
Granted, we don't import as much from Saudi as we used to but we do get a lot from Mexico, Canada and Venezuela - and we are the buyer in the Iraqi oil-for-food program.
And I wouldn't worry about the Saudis - we may not be getting as much from them, but you can bet it's selling to someone - or the price would drop.
Bush's business mostly did business with Mexico. The bailout (if I recall) was from friends of dad.
I firmly believe that the Saudis want Osama dead, but keep it very low key so they don't have riots in their own streets.
China is rapidly ramping up their own exploration. There's lots of oil over there. I've made several trips over there - to different oil fields - and they are really busy. They are also competing on our own turf - in the Gulf of Mexico they have ships competing for seismic shooting. They win hands down on price and up to date equipment, but the safety record isn't good enough for the majors yet.
There is a serious limit to how many in China can get cars. In Beijing you have to be a company driver, drive a taxi, or know someone really high up in order to be able to drive. Even then the traffic jams are horrendous.
Now the rant:I remember those days you're talking about. Back then I used 29 cent gas. But that was 1972 and if you adjust for inflation you'll find it still is about that price.
Compare that gallon of gas to a gallon of milk. Milk costs a little more, I think, but they are close.
Then think of what it took to get that gallon of milk to the store - raise the cows, milk them, pasteurize the milk and add a bit of vitamin d, package and date it and ship it. And there's absolutely no risk involved - the government buys the leftovers.
Then think of what it takes to get that gallon of gas. Hiring a crew to shoot the seismic data, a processing company to put it in a form it can be understood, and then an interpreter to decide which locations to propose drilling. You're already a couple of million out. Now hire a drilling rig and the service companies to keep it running. Not cheap either.
Millions spent on an educated guess that maybe there's oil there. Who would spend that kind of money on a maybe if there wasn't a payout? Not me.
But - at this point we only have oil and a rig. From there it has to be pipelined or shipped to an area where there is a refinery. And refined according to each state or regional area's demands (all gas is not created equal) and then trucked or pipelined to a final destination. This isn't cheap either.
poster:AuntieMel
thread:450616
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/poli/20050122/msgs/458246.html