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Dr. Bob is Robert Hsiung, MD,
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Posted by 64Bowtie on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Dinah, posted by Sigismund on June 29, 2008, at 23:28:48
I see no way out... We are gonna see:
1. major devaluation of the dollar against other world currencies (like 50%)
2. martial law declared before the general election in November
3. sinking of 1 of our 2 aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf
4. the Pope is asassinated w/no replacement
5. Isreal gets fed up and attacks Siria and Iran
6. price of oil starts settling lower than today when the speculators become regulated
7. China demands title to the lands in the nine western states that secures the accumulated 4 trillion dollar deficit in our balance of payments, which are met with our stiffest resistance ever seen (they better "duck & cover")
8. Hillary Clinton does not become our 1st female President, but is elected in May of 2009 as our 2nd female President
9. Solar activity in 2011 eventually forces the survivors underground till 2016Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...........
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to The Economy, et al, posted by 64Bowtie on June 30, 2008, at 2:12:29
You make me laugh.
I'm so impressed. Thank you.
It's terrible, isn't it?
Posted by Phil on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah!, posted by TexasChic on June 29, 2008, at 21:11:49
"I think future generations will think we were really stupid to so blindly believe everything we were told."
Nope, future generations will be as dumb as we are.
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah! » TexasChic, posted by Phil on June 30, 2008, at 6:02:07
> "I think future generations will think we were really stupid to so blindly believe everything we were told."
>
> Nope, future generations will be as dumb as we are.you're so right, Phil....dumb genes just dumb themselves right on down and everyone gets dumber.
Posted by Dinah on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Dinah, posted by Sigismund on June 29, 2008, at 23:28:48
My recollection of the seventies crisis was that oil definitely played an important part. But I also remember a major problem was interest rates. Interest rates flew up to the high teens. Savings and loans and banks were holding low interest rate mortgages but forced to pay high interest rates in order to get depositors to deposit their money. As a result their losses started mounting, and to balance this, they started lending money to ventures that were willing to pay high interest rates because of their rather speculative nature. Eventually the whole thing went bust, and the government was forced to bail them out. I'm hoping that rules were put in place to prevent that from happening again. And I'm hoping the federal reserve is able to keep a better control on things. I felt so much more comfortable when Greenspan was there.
I was worried about the economy even before the oil problem. People have been encouraged to overinvest in real estate, to buy bigger homes than they can comfortably afford. The guidelines for how much of your income should be spent on mortgage payments seem different now than they used to be. The idea was that you could always flip houses. That real estate was always a sound investment. Which it may be long term, but isn't necessarily short term. This is led to a round of foreclosures, mortgage holders doing whatever they could to keep foreclosures from happening, and a general decline in the real estate market and new home construction. Which isn't all that unlike what happened in the seventies.
Still, the oil problem is so much worse than that. I know people who will have a really hard time keeping their jobs with oil prices being what they are. And if people start losing their jobs because of it, things will spiral downwards. Even now, as there is less disposable income and people have less confidence, there's going to be a ripple effect in nonessential sales. Clothing for one, as TexasChic pointed out. And our city relies heavily on tourism. There are going to be fewer people who can justify taking a vacation, and less money to spend when they get to their destination. As people are laid off in the hospitality industry, they'll have no money to spend on things locally, and the entire local economy will suffer. And so on.
I just don't totally understand what's going on with the oil prices. I understand part of it is totally out of our control. Developing countries, particularly China, are developing and their demand for oil is skyrocketing. Since oil production doesn't skyrocket along with it, our days of cheap oil may be over forever. Yet I've also read that oil companies are passing along increases in oil prices without passing along decreases. And that speculation in oil futures is artificially driving prices higher. Surely the government could step in on those practices. Yet neither party seems to be making any effort to do so, so probably I'm understanding it wrong. If I was understanding it properly, it would make a compelling election year topic. Since it's not, I must assume I'm incorrect. It seems unlikely that both parties are so interested in the allowing of offshore drilling that they'd be willing to give up such an important political advantage.
I've lived through a few economic crises, and I ultimately have faith that this too shall pass. But I am also prepared for some rough times. :(
(I was recently considering ordering something made of acrylic, and discovered that the company had raised its prices 15% because of increased oil costs, acrylic being a petroleum byproduct. So the implications to costs rising go far further than the gas pump.)
I think long term the answer is definitely to develop alternative fuel sources. But short term that's infeasible. People's cars are made to run on gasoline. Converting even to ethynol would would be very costly. Not to mention the entire production and distribution system. I also have personal reservations about switching to a fuel source that if widely adopted would be dependent on crops. Mother nature is not known for her cooperation in producing a steady supply of crops. It's definitely something that needs to be considered. Eventually, Americans might even be brought to embrace public transport.
As far as stagflation goes, I don't recall overly much about that term and the causes. But I'd think runaway oil prices would definitely contribute to rising prices and economic stagnation. I can't really remember what other factors came into play.
Or I could be completely wrong about everything. What do I know? The powers that be can't seem to figure anything out. I'd probably understand better if Daddy was still around. It was rather a hobby of his. I really am no expert.
Posted by Horned One on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Horned One on June 29, 2008, at 18:08:00
I'm not sure what your point was. I don't live in America. Americans aren't the only people affected by rising oil prices.
-Horny
Posted by Midnightblue on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
Phillipa was talking about there being no doctors or hospitals. I'm sorry, but I don't see that happening in my lifetime. That is what I'm not going to be anxious about.
Concerning the cost of oil. That is driven by:
1. Increased demand--China, India and other developing nations now want and need more fuel.
2. Increased cost to find and recover oil--all the "easy" oil has been tapped. Most rigs are drilling more than a mile down. And just because you drill doesn't mean you will actually recover something from a hole. It can cost a fortune to drill a dry hole. Renting a rig can cost $500,000 to $1,000,000 a day.
3. Not all oil is sweet--which is the easier to process type. Some is trapped in tar sands. Some is heavy sour. It is the sweet everyone wants that costs so much.
4. There aren't enough rigs or people to run them. Many rigs were scrapped, and the oil industry has not always been kind to the people they hire. There are just so many times a person will tolerate being laid off and go back to work for you.
5. Much of the world resources of oil are in politically unstable countries.
6. It costs more to drill/produce/refine in an environmentally responsible way. This is not a bad thing, this is GOOD, but it does cost more.
7. Weather--ever notice how the costs of oil goes up when there is a hurricane? That is because all the rigs must be evacuated and all refineries much be shut down. It can take weeks or months to get them back on line and up to full speed.
8. Speculation--yes there is some. Think about the run on Wii and Wii Fit right now. Both are hard to get. People are buying them up and selling them for more on Ebay. If they would produce more, or if people suddenly decided they didn't want one, the price would go down.
9. The weak dollar. I understand this, but honestly don't know how to fix it. Oil is priced in dollars.
Posted by Dinah on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Midnightblue on June 30, 2008, at 12:50:39
You obviously have more familiarity with this than I do. I've been wondering if there is some hope that higher gas prices will cause pressure to allow drilling in places currently off limits? That's about all I've heard from the politicians in terms of answers.
I agree with you about the other causes. I'm not sure there's anything that can be done with any of them.
I sure have seen the quickest turnaround in history in vehicle choice though. Not many of the newest vehicles I see on the road are high gas consumers.
Posted by kid47 on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
There are lots of very complicated conditions and reactions that we could blame for the current state of things in the U.S. I've chosen to narrow it down to a few:
Corporate greed (Exxon posted 40 Billion dollars in profits).
A corrupt and short sighted government.
A society raised to be coddled mindless consumers. (I am the poster child for this one)
I think what we are experiencing is a major financial and enviromental *correction* after generations of neglect and abuse. I believe it will get worse before it gets better....but I do believe it will get better.
It has an awful lot to do with how "we the people" respond to this "warning shot"These statements are mine and mine alone. This is of course all IMHO. If anyone feels accused, assaulted, afraid, attacked, alarmed, assailed, amused, aghast, put down, put out, put upon, put asunder, put away, disrespected, disregarded, disturbed, disenfranchised, unhappy, unnerved, unloved, untoward, unemployed, unclean, unsavory, or is just plain offended by anything I have said here, I am truly, sorry. I hope that covers it.... phew...no wonder I seldom post any more.
Peace Out
kid47
Posted by Midnightblue on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Midnightblue, posted by Dinah on June 30, 2008, at 13:31:37
There is hope--the problem is a company pays to lease an area and they only have a few years to develop it. I think usually 5. So they have probably already evaluated fairly well most of the leases that they have.
Let's say an oil company has a lease, but has only drilled one well on it. If it was a dry hole or poor producer, they might not be eager to drill 3 or 4 more to see if there is something there after all. The rock formation might not be the kind the geologist said it was, or the formation may be smaller then they thought.
Most of the "off limit" lands were evaluated 30-40 years ago. What was not profitable or accessible then, very well could be profitable now. The technology today is much better, both at guessing what is in the ground and at getting it out. They are drilling six miles down offshore now.
There are quite a few smaller independents going back into the old oilfields that were plugged and abandoned by the major oil companies. They are re-opening wells and getting a few more barrels out. At $20 a barrel for oil, it wouldn't be worth spending what they would have to to recover it, but at $100 or more they can make a profit.
Ultimately, we need to look at every source of power we can. There are some things we MUST have oil for. For others, there is natural gas which was just burned off for years because no one wanted it. Nuclear power must be looked at, but that can take years to put into place. Solar and wind must be used where ever possible.
You don't have to have oil to generate electricity.
One other thing, some countries subsidize the cost of gas to make it cheaper. The United States does not. China and India heavily subsidize the cost of gas. So not only do they have more and more people wanting gas, they are getting it at below market costs.
There isn't going to be an easy or quick fix, and anyone who tells you there will be isn't telling you the truth.
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah! » Phil, posted by fayeroe on June 30, 2008, at 9:02:35
Queensland is mostly coal and there's heaps of gas off WA.
We can have an 'all-American themepark' here.
Posted by Dinah on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Dinah, posted by Midnightblue on June 30, 2008, at 14:20:19
Yeah, I've seen that operators are redrilling wells that have declined in production, because now they now can drill to a deeper level.
I heard someone refer to petroleum used in the generation of electricity, and I confess I wasn't aware that anyone did that. I knew of coal plants, but I thought the rest were hydroelectric or nuclear.
Definitely no easy fix. If someone were to invent tomorrow an affordable and effective alternative to combustion engines, it would still take years and years to replace the existing vehicles. And the same with other sorts of oil consumers. Or to build mass transit systems even if they were safe, clean, and went where people need to go. It's a mess.
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by kid47 on June 30, 2008, at 14:00:54
"Corporate greed (Exxon posted 40 Billion dollars in profits)."
The courts just reduced the fine imposed upon Exxon, for Valdez, to pennies on the dollar. The Alaskan Indians are up the proverbial creek without a paddle on that one........
Boycott Exxon, Chevron and Mobil.
Anyone see the guy on the news who is running his small truck on "water"?
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah! » fayeroe, posted by Sigismund on June 30, 2008, at 15:25:20
> Queensland is mostly coal and there's heaps of gas off WA.
>
> *****We can have an 'all-American themepark' here.****Unless Dolly Parton designs it, that oughta scare you straight!
Posted by karen_kay on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
hell yes! if i can't drive around to clear my thoughts, while puffing on a camel and drinking a $5. coffee, i wonder if life's worth it anymore...
we should echange goods for services, i think. if for nothing else, just to spice things up a bit. you have NO idea what kk'd do for a carton of camels, expensive coffee and plenty of gas money.
Posted by Phillipa on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Phillipa, posted by karen_kay on June 30, 2008, at 19:54:22
KK does it consist of a pole, dim lights, and many males stuffing dollars somewhere? Kidding but seriously we have a serious problem. And trickle down is the key word to me. And yes docs less of them as the insurance companies do not pay the same as they used to to them and their malpractice rises daily. Also agree on too big houses. Unneccessary. They say Charlotte is doing the best of all the States with Real Estate. But the problem is those wanting to relocate here from other states can't sell their houses. People I see daily buying expensive things sure bet their credit cards are maxed out. They do say a lot of old money in Charlotte. But what do I Know nothing. Sigi I want to move to Australia and play with boxing kangaroos sure bet kk will come also and win the match. Love Phillipa
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » karen_kay, posted by Phillipa on June 30, 2008, at 20:59:19
There's a kangaroo or two (or perhaps it's they are wallabies) down in the valley here.
In Tasmania there are miniature ones called potaroos, maybe about the same size as a rabbit, and they live on moss.
I just went for a look for one and found this
http://www.news-tasmania.com/tarkine-images/tarkine-2s.jpg
They want to build a pulp mill there to use up the last of the forests. That is the bright side of the credit crunch....it does not look like they will get the money, even though they own the state government.
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Phillipa, posted by Sigismund on June 30, 2008, at 22:57:28
Sorry that I am going to go off subject of the 'roos.....
Saying "pulp mill" reminded me of where I grew up and why I become ill when I go back and see the destruction that a large lumber whore has caused the area.Google southeastern Oklahoma and all of the brown that you will see will be "clear cuts"...The trees/vegetation are literally scraped off of the mountains, piled up and burned. Loblobby pines are planted for harvesting. The silt from the bulldozing goes downhill (just like something else) and fills the streams and lakes.
I grew up there and spoke to the legislature when the state forestry department wanted to allow the ethical lumber company to sell out to Weyerhauser. Obviously, even pointing out that the state of Oregon had run them off did no good.
Thar's money to be made in them thar hills....
Posted by 64Bowtie on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: The Economy, et al » 64Bowtie, posted by Sigismund on June 30, 2008, at 3:12:55
Thanks for responding... Guess I sounded a little overstated while repeating the many predictions that I have seen and heard that also have at least a vague thread of plausibility... I didn't attempt to force anything... Trust me; the list is much longer but also disjoint, whereas this shortened list is sorta "right-now" and interdependent...
Rod
PS: In my list Bush/Cheney play "pivot-man......." as one common thread
Posted by 64Bowtie on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Midnightblue, posted by Dinah on June 30, 2008, at 17:22:03
» Dinah » >>> Definitely no easy fix. If someone were to invent tomorrow an affordable and effective alternative to combustion engines, it would still take years and years to replace the existing vehicles. And the same with other sorts of oil consumers. Or to build mass transit systems even if they were safe, clean, and went where people need to go. It's a mess. >
Rod <<< What takes so long is mandated by corporate accountants/attorneys who know that government money is new-money to the bottom line and nearly free because its grant-money... Government has a long "gestation", so the biggest folks are able to survive till it arrives... This "gestation" period for grants takes on a persona of its own, as if demanding that grants take an enormous amount of time to fund...
Rod <<< We see in the news all this noise about the Nuclear waste not having a safe home... Well, first off, Nuclear waste isn't done being Nuclear yet, as evidenced by the heat it generates... A "not perfect" but still "mighty fine" solution would be to send the waste material out with a NASA space probe, if and only if it would somehow generate electricity, much needed in deep space, and leave those elaborate and complex solar arrays here for us to use...
Rod <<< In Scientific American about 6 years ago, there was an expose' of a (sub-critical) Nuclear battery that worked by converting heat from the infra red frequencies into electricity; virtually forever; again perfect for a space probe... 2 drawbacks are the tremendous weight contained in small amounts of the waste and protective containers, along with problems of handling unstable sub-critical materials until it gets into space and then the protection of distance takes over...
Rod <<< Ah, distance; let me bend your mind around this concept, only let it stay here on earth... The Russians have drilled down to a level of 42 miles looking for oil... Now, mind you, oil companies have been drilling down then sideways for many years, and many lawsuits and claims of theft by neighbors seem to prove its possible... No rocket-science required to figure that the Russians could drill down 1 mile then hundreds of miles sideways and deplete our ANWAR reserve without us killing a single reservation animal... And, the Gull Island oil field nearby ANWAR is four times as big and being kept (mostly) secret for future military contingencies...
Rod <<< The point is, we could drill down a mile and place the Nuclear battery full of waste material, allowing for whole cities to safely get cheap electricity, forever... Also, a very small amount could be used 1,000 feet down, safely powering a home site 24/7 forever... 1,000 feet is a 1,000 10th thickenesses; more than enough for radioctive safety, since waste is never more than 10 to the 8th Curie in intensity; 120 times deeper than necessary for extra safety... The trade off is drilling, casing and platform at the top is about $7,000... I'm positive because of a water well I facillitated on family property about 6 months ago cost just about that much...
Rod <<< Not to be outdone by current technology, about a hundred years ago, Tesla got in trouble for trying to harness lightening on a daily and continuous basis... He never quite figured out how to turn a house into some kind of antenna to collect positively charged "air", pass it through the appliances and entertainment equipment in the house, depositing it in the negatively charged earth... Now wouldn't that cause shortness of breath in the boardrooms of our biggest power companies;
******* FREE ELECTRICITY 24/7!!! *******
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to » Dinah » 'It's a mess.' (Doesn't have to be...) » Dinah, posted by 64Bowtie on July 1, 2008, at 13:15:52
This Australian works in the US and is building a solar power plant there.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s1837616.htm
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22408071-664,00.html
We have so much sun. Why would we want to make use of it?
Posted by kid47 on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Solar power, posted by Sigismund on July 1, 2008, at 15:41:45
How 'bout geothermal energy? Infinite supply, fiscally feasible, no known enviromental impact......what's irksome is a lot of this stuff has been doable for quite some time. There has been a hydrogen fuel cell car since the 1940's. Capitalism at its worst.
Kid
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:24
In reply to Re: Solar power » Sigismund, posted by kid47 on July 1, 2008, at 17:32:28
Australia is full of geothermal too (along with coal! and uranium!).
There are hotrocks under or near Perth; the whole artesian basin is hot.Nothing like putting all your eggs in one petroleum basket, hey?
Now that global warming is a big issue and the price of oil is so high, it makes it a lot more painful to do the carbon tax on petrol/emmissions trading thing.
We spent the last 10 years doing culture wars.
Posted by Larry Hoover on July 6, 2008, at 13:10:45
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
I'm a little slow to enter in, eh? Better late than never.
I'm not too concerned about the economy, in general. For example, manufacturing output in the U.S. rose in May (last stats available), after four months of decline. The fall in the U.S. dollar against other world currencies has made American output cheaper. Exports are increasing steadily, improving the trade balance. Yes, consumer confidence is down, at the lowest it's been since ~1990, but consumer confidence hits a bottom *after* the economic recovery has already begun. It lags the performance of the economy itself.
Because many basic commodities are denominated in U.S. dollars, the U.S. is taking a double whammy. Relative to other major economies, the percentage increase in some commodities is the highest. But the American economy is still the leader in many high technology areas, and I can't see that changing any time soon. The economic pressures will simply force a faster pace of adaptation, and the next increment in high tech arising therefrom will push the U.S. back up again. I think that's already begun.
Yes, the stock market (DJIA) is down 20%, but I don't find that to be a relevant indicator of anything, other than it's a good time to buy. There's still a huge amount of cash (world-wide, I mean) chasing after investment opportunities, despite the credit crunch. When fear leaves the market, as it always does, consumer confidence will return again.
I feel for people who got stuck with houses and mortgages that they couldn't afford. But look at oil-dependent cities like Calgary or Houston. There are times when you can pick up a property at 10-20 cents on the dollar, but things always turn around. I remember when people were buying houses in Texas to tear down for the materials they were made up of, being cheaper than buying new construction materials. Not any more, they're not. People are way too resilient to stay mired for very long.
Lar
Posted by Larry Hoover on July 6, 2008, at 13:10:45
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Larry Hoover on July 6, 2008, at 10:29:08
I just thought of another way of saying what I'm trying to get across....
For *most* people, the economic decisious they're facing are lifestyle decisions, not survival decisions. Buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle, hanging out at the mall/restaurant meals less often, vacationing closer to home....Not about how to feed the family, or cope with having nowhere to shelter them. Being more sensible with credit, rather than outright bankruptcy. We still pay less for food, on a percentage of total income basis, than we did in the 1920's, the 1950's, the 1980's. We're just a little spoiled.
Lar
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